India's IPO Boom: Hype vs Fundamentals and the Shadow of Manipulation

India's IPO wave is turning into a chessboard of hype and nerves. The country is the 4th largest IPO market in the world ^[1], with deals that feel more sprint than marathon. Critics warn that oversubscription and sky‑high GMPs mask weak fundamentals, with some IPOs showing little revenue or real offices yet still landing on the calendar. Jane Street highlighted the market's fragility and the potential for manipulation, a cautionary note many are choosing to ignore in the rush ^[1].

• Hype vs fundamentals — Oversubscribed IPOs can outpace true earnings health, feeding speculative fervor more than profits ^[1].
• Shadow of manipulation — The market’s health is questioned as schemes ride the GMP craze rather than solid business metrics ^[1].
• Big‑name context — The scene sits inside a massive pool: the biggest Indian company is Reliance, and the broader market dwarfs single players like Aramco in scale ^[1].

In contrast, Tata Capital IPO buzz is real—the GMP is flying and sentiment is upbeat ^[2]. Investors are weighing whether to hold long‑term or book partial profits, with some taking quick gains while others choose a patient, “for keeps” stance ^[2].

Bottom line: India’s IPO appetite is undeniable, but the verdict will hinge on fundamentals and how much discipline the market can sustain over the coming weeks and months.

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