Retail Hype vs Market Rules: Are Indian IPO Valuations and Shorting Ideas Driving Today’s Market?

Retail hype around Paytm and Lenskart IPOs is colliding with real-money bets and market rules. The chatter shows investors debating valuations and, in some cases, eyeing short bets on listings—a tug-of-war between hype and market mechanics. India’s market reality is also invoked: “India markets don't let you short overnight,” and some argue that banning shorting is itself a form of manipulation ^[1].

IPO Valuation Fever — Valuations dominate the talk. A line in the thread suggests IPOs often list around 10-12x revenue in the US, a rough benchmark many compare to, even as Paytm remains a contentious case with a price that’s “below IPO” but has shown signs of narrowing its gap ^[1].

Crowd Mentality and Big Investors — The mood isn’t just numbers; crowd psychology drives bets. Posts note decisions are driven by hype and the crowd, with major names like BlackRock, SoftBank, and ADIA reportedly backing Lenskart in the run-up, even as promoters exit and listings stumble ^[3].

Shorting Rules and Realities — Shorting IPOs and listings provokes debate. Some say you can’t short IPOs if they aren’t F&O-listed, while others push for mechanisms that let it happen, arguing rules clash with market forces ^[2].

Practical Bets: SLBM, Short Strangles and IPO Plays — Traders share ready-made plays: • SLBM (stock lending and borrowing) to earn lending fees; annual yields cited at 10-20% with risks ^[4]. • Short Strangle on Bank Nifty aiming ~0.5-0.75% monthly (6-9% annually) with careful risk controls ^[4]. • IPO plays across four family accounts, with a rough target of 13-15% return on about ₹60k blocked for IPOS; total costs around 15% of profit ^[4].

Closing thought: the chatter reveals a market trying to balance hype, crowd dynamics, and the concrete rules that shape how (and how hard) bets land. Watch how listing outcomes influence next-gen trading ideas—the conversation isn’t going away soon.

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